715 
fxus66 kmfr 111003 
afdmfr 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Medford or 
303 am PDT Sat Oct 11 2008 


Short term...a significant upper low over the region...centered 
over Nevada...is bringing cold northerly flow across the area. 
Lingering moisture with northerly flow is also allowing low clouds 
to develop along northern and western slopes in the 
Umpqua...Cascades...and Siskiyous in western Oregon. These clouds 
are expected to keep temperatures around or just above freezing 
this morning over valleys in southwestern Oregon. On the east 
side... shower activity has moved east and southeast of the area 
with some lingering middle level clouds and light isolated snow 
showers possible over the Warners through this morning. 


Today expect clearing skies with cool temperatures continuing in 
the northerly flow pattern. Expect some breezy and gusty 
conditions...especially over the east side and higher terrain as a 
middle and upper level northerly jet remains over the area. Tonight 
winds have remained around 10 miles per hour with gusts to 15 to 20 miles per hour for 
locations east of the Cascades. Expect continued gusty conditions 
with winds becoming stronger in the afternoon. Then winds should 
gradually decrease this evening as the low continues to move east 
and winds aloft decrease. Clear skies and light winds late 
Saturday night into Sunday morning will allow for cold 
temperatures to develop...with low temperatures in the middle 20s to 
lower 30s for inland west side valleys and temperatures in the 10 
to 20 degree range east of the Cascades. 


Sunday a ridge is expected to develop offshore then move over the 
area on Monday. This pattern will bring a gradual warm up to the area 
with afternoon temperatures rising to near normal or slightly 
above by Monday. 


Previous long term... 
Tuesday through Thursday...mostly zonal...west to east...flow 
aloft will set up brining seasonally cool temperatures. Models 
have indicated possibility of weak mostly west-to-east aligned 
front pushing into central Oregon northward in the Tuesday- 
Wednesday time frame. But latest runs continue to weaken this 
feature. 


&& 


Aviation...a low is moving out of the area today with continued 
low clouds expected for some inland locations through this 
morning. Coast..VFR with isolated MVFR this morning in low ceilings 
and visibility along the Coos and Douglas County coast. Inland...VFR 
except areas of MVFR in low clouds west of the Cascade crest 
through this morning...also isolated MVFR in low clouds over Modoc 
and southeastern Lake County through this morning. Mountain 
obscurations expected through the morning in the Umpqua valley...along 
the western slopes of the Cascades and across the northern slopes 
of the Siskiyous...and into eastern Modoc and lake counties. 




&& 


Mfr watches/warnings/advisories... 
or...frost advisory until 9 am PDT this morning for orz021. 
Freeze warning until 9 am PDT this morning for orz023-orz024- 
orz025-orz026. 
Freeze warning from 1 am to 9 am PDT Sunday for orz023-orz024- 
orz025-orz026. 


California...freeze warning until 9 am PDT this morning for caz080-caz081- 
caz082. 
Freeze warning from 1 am to 9 am PDT Sunday for caz080-caz081- 
caz082. 


Pacific coastal waters...Small Craft Advisory for winds until 11 PM 
PDT this evening for pzz356-pzz376. 
Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 11 PM PDT this 
evening for pzz356-pzz376. 
Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 11 am PDT this 
morning for pzz350-pzz370. 


$$ 


Cirrocumulus