722 
fxus66 khnx 111038 
afdhnx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford California 
338 am PDT Sat Oct 11 2008 


Discussion... 
large scale closed upper low over Nevada at this time is expected to slowly 
kick out to the northeast by Monday. Gradients have dropped off 
and winds are not expected to be as strong today as they have 
been over the past couple of days. However...they will still be a 
bit gusty at times along the west side of the valley and into the 
Kern County mountains and desert. Temperatures will be the main 
forecast problem through the period. The biggest short term concern 
will be near record low temperatures on Sunday morning. Daytime maximum temperatures 
will be continue to be around 10 to 15 degrees below normal 
through Monday over the valley. 


The GFS and European model (ecmwf) are not in agreement concerning the extended. 
The GFS is more zonal and flat with the epac ridge expected to 
build in by midweek next week and the European model (ecmwf) is more amplified with 
the epac ridge and heights are around 60dm higher by Wednesday. Needless 
to say this is bearing a significant problem with the forecast 
temperatures from midweek into the weekend. Local verification has 
indicated that the ecmwfbc guidance is the best performer in the 
extended and has been notably a better forecast guidance for 
temperatures for the County Warning Area. We have consistently been seeing the 
ecmwfbc out perform the mosguidebc and the gfs40bc temperature 
guidance. So with that being said will lean more with the European model (ecmwf) 
solution and blend towards the HPC and persistence forecast for the 
temperatures. This will still bring US well above normal by the 
end of the week for the valley locations and into the desert area. 
The GFS was introducing some clouds on Friday but has backed off 
that solution and will leave alone for now. 


&& 


Aviation...VFR conditions expected across the district through 12z 
Sunday. 




&& 


Air quality issues... 
none 


&& 


Hnx watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


Public...jdb 
AVN/fw...Molina 


Weather.Gov/Hanford