685 
fxus66 kmfr 070804 
afdmfr 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Medford or 
104 am PDT Tuesday Oct 7 2008 


Discussion...00z NGM/NAM/GFS in. 


A weak front is now approaching the southern Oregon coast. Not 
much upper level support with this system. Light precipitation 
has started at North Bend..the Charlotte Ridge RAWS...and the 
Devils Graveyard RAWS. No other stations have reported 
precipitation as of yet. 


This front will drag through the area today and nearly all of the 
associated precipitation will fall from the Cascades west and 
Siskiyous north. Most areas will only see a few hundredths of an 
inch or less. 


Brisk zonal flow aloft will develop after this system 
passes...with the storm track to the north of the area. Expect dry 
weather with cooler than normal temperatures Wednesday. 


A trough will dig into the zonal flow over the eastern Gulf of 
Alaska and this trough will move onshore Wednesday night into Thursday. 
The associated precipitation over the Medford County Warning Area will be limited 
to the northern portions...Cape Blanco north...Coos and Douglas 
counties...and some over northern Klamath and lake counties as 
well. 


Once the trough moves onshore it will deepen quite a bit. The last 
two GFS runs and the European model (ecmwf) solutions are similar...forecasting a 
cold cutoff low developing over northern Nevada Friday. This low 
will continue south and east farther into the Great Basin before 
heading back northeast Sunday. In the meantime...north to 
northeast flow aloft will settle over the Medford County Warning Area...which 
offers the best support for low level offshore flow. Expect this 
offshore event to begin Friday night. 


The offshore flow will ease Sunday night as the low heads east and 
a ridge moves in from the west. This ridge will break down Monday 
and the next weak upstream trough will push a front onshore next 
Tuesday. Associated precipitation will once again be quite light. 


&& 


Aviation...areas of MVFR ceilings with isolated IFR ceilings/visibilities from 
the Cascades west and Siskiyous north through this 
morning...clearing to VFR in the afternoon. VFR conditions will 
prevail elsewhere into Tuesday night. Areas of MVFR visibilities in fog 
will develop in the western valleys Tuesday night. 


&& 


Mfr watches/warnings/advisories... 
or...none. 


California...none. 


Pacific coastal waters...gale watch from this afternoon through late 
Wednesday night for pzz356-pzz376. 
Hazardous seas warning from 11 am this morning to 5 am PDT 
Thursday for pzz356-pzz376. 
Small Craft Advisory for winds until 5 am PDT Wednesday for 
pzz350-pzz370. 
Hazardous seas warning from 11 am this morning to 11 am PDT 
Wednesday for pzz350-pzz370. 
Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 11 am PDT this 
morning for pzz350-pzz370. 


$$ 


15/15/05