339 
fxus65 kfgz 232205 
afdfgz 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Flagstaff Arizona 
305 PM MST Wednesday Jul 23 2008 


Synopsis...monsoon moisture will persist this week across eastern 
Arizona with scattered showers and thunderstorms each day. Western 
Arizona will see drier conditions through Thursday...with only 
isolated storms anticipated. Moisture is expected to increase from 
the south by the weekend...bringing a better chance of thunderstorms 
for all of northern Arizona. 


&& 


Discussion...showers and thunderstorms have developed across the 
Northland this afternoon...and the focus focus of thunderstorm 
activity looks to be across east-central Arizona for the remainder 
of today and again on Thursday as a high pressure ridge will be 
situated along the Desert Southwest through the southern rockies. 
Some drying and stabilizing forces will be in place further 
west...though isolated showers will still be possible west of 
Flagstaff. There is still weak storm motion along with the 
relatively moist air mass...so urban and small stream flooding may 
well be the weather threat of note into this evening...though 
isolated severe hail will certainly also be possible. 


The flow pattern aloft will likely provide for a somewhat moister 
air mass by the weekend into early next week...with the continuation 
of scattered thunderstorms anticipated for each day. 


&& 


Aviation...for the 00z package...scattered rain showers/thunderstorms and rain expected to continue 
into the early evening hours...mainly east of a k0v7-kflg-kprc line 
with only isolated activity west. Isolated IFR/MVFR conditions possible in the 
strongest storms. After 03z...activity diminishing with isolated 
-shra/-tsra possible overnight. Aviation discussion not updated for 
amendments. 


&& 


Fire weather...see fire weather forecast (fwffgz) for discussion of 
days 1 and 2. 


Saturday through Monday...a moist and unstable airmass will continue 
to bring scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms 
each day. 


&& 


$$ 


Public.............Kd 
aviation/fire weather...db 


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