356 
fxus64 klzk 202014 
afdlzk 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas 
213 PM CST Friday Nov 20 2009 


Short term...tonight through Monday night 
models continue to advertise a progressive split flow pattern over 
the Continental U.S. This period with several shortwaves to contend with. First 
up is the upper trough that extends from northeast Mexico into the 
Central Plains and is clearly visible on moisture channel imagery 
this afternoon. Associated surface low also getting its act together 
off the south Texas coast and expected to continue to develop as 
trough approaches. 


NAM solution has trended slower and further to the north with the 
surface system while the GFS has done the opposite...moving the low 
to the south and speeding it up. Based on the model trends and 
performances over the past several days...feel the best course of 
action this afternoon will be to follow the lead of the GFS but not 
quite as fast as the model is showing. 


Light precipitation has been falling over northeast Oklahoma and 
over southwest Arkansas for most of the day in the vicinity of an 
inverted surface trough that is making very little progress to the 
east. Models remain consistent in moving the developing low pressure 
system along the Gulf Coast through the weekend with heaviest of the 
precipitation remaining well to the south of the forecast area. 
Upper level trough will swing across the area tonight and Saturday 
keeping some precipitation chances in the forecast. The best chances 
will remain over the south and east but even here ... scattered 
probability of precipitation can be justified. Temperatures will be a little cooler versus 
days past with more extensive cloud cover. 


Following the faster and more southern track being shown by the 
GFS...I will remove all mention of precipitation for Sunday. High 
pressure moves along the Gulf Coast and will swing winds back to the 
south for above normal temperatures. Overall the mav/mex numbers 
look reasonable and are generally accepted. 


Come Monday...attention will turn to an advancing 500 mb trough that will 
be located over the northern plains. Associated frontal boundary 
will be over the Central Plains and as the trough ejects east...the 
front will move across the forecast area Monday night. Moisture 
looks limited at this time and will hold onto slight chance probability of precipitation 
inherited from previous shift. Front will be located over the 
east/southeast parts of the state as the period ends with high 
pressure building behind the system in its wake. 
&& 


Long term...Tuesday through Friday 
similar to the short term...the GFS is the preferred model in the 
long term...although the European is trending more to the GFS 
solution. Front will be moving through the state early Tuesday...and 
have slight chance probability of precipitation across the southeast half of the state to 
start off the long term. Another weak front will quickly follow 
Wednesday...but with a lack of moisture...will only bring a 
reinforcing shot of cooler air. This will keep cool and dry 
conditions over the region for the upcoming Holiday. 
&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Batesville Arkansas 44 60 43 62 / 10 20 20 10 
Camden Arkansas 47 62 45 66 / 40 40 30 10 
Harrison Arkansas 45 60 41 63 / 20 10 10 10 
Hot Springs Arkansas 46 61 43 65 / 30 30 20 10 
Little Rock Arkansas 46 61 44 64 / 20 20 20 10 
Monticello Arkansas 46 62 46 65 / 30 30 40 10 
Mount Ida Arkansas 46 61 42 65 / 30 30 20 10 
Mountain Home Arkansas 44 60 42 62 / 10 10 10 10 
Newport Arkansas 44 60 44 61 / 10 20 20 10 
Pine Bluff Arkansas 46 61 45 64 / 30 30 30 10 
Russellville Arkansas 45 60 42 64 / 20 20 20 10 
Searcy Arkansas 45 60 44 62 / 20 20 20 10 
Stuttgart Arkansas 45 61 45 63 / 20 30 30 10 
&& 


Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Short term...56 / long term...58