782 
fxus64 kshv 202111 
afdshv 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Shreveport la 
311 PM CST Friday Nov 20 2009 


Discussion... 
kshv radar...now back up...shows very light showers persisting 
over southeast OK...SW Arkansas...and East Texas. WV imagery shows upper low over West 
Texas making some eastward progress over the last few hours. Isentropic 
lift associated with the trough should allow for more development of 
showers across the southern zones of deep East Texas...into north la tonight. 
Trough will continue its progression tonight and Saturday... and 
should exit the region by late Saturday evening. All in 
all...rainfall totals should be manageable for the most part...only 
around a quarter of an inch to three quarters of an inch. 


Sunday and Monday will bring dry and mild weather...ahead of the 
next system. A closed upper low ejects into the plains and brings 
a cold front through the region Monday night into Tuesday... 
bringing showers and cooler temperatures along with it. Once again... 
rainfall amounts should be relatively light. 


The remainder of the extended appears dry...with a back door front 
bringing a reinforcing shot of cold air in on Thanksgiving day. 
This may very well bring our first widespread freeze of the 
year...making for a very chilly start for black Friday shoppers. 


&& 


Aviation... 
an upper level short wave over south Texas...will move slowly east 
northeast through 21/18z bringing a good chance of showers to the 
four state area tafs sites. VFR ceilings may lower to MVFR ceilings at most 
of the taf sites tonight...with possible isolated IFR ceilings at lfk 
through 21/15z. After 21/15z...ceilings will gradually improve to VFR by 
21/21z as the short wave moves to the east of the four state area. 
Visibilities may lower to MVFR in rain at times through 21/12z. East 
southeast winds may shift to the northeast on Saturday as a surface 
low pressure system moves along the Gulf Coast. /03/ 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
shv 51 60 42 68 45 / 60 60 30 10 0 
mlu 47 59 43 66 42 / 40 60 40 10 0 
deq 49 61 41 65 45 / 40 40 30 10 0 
txk 47 60 44 66 44 / 50 50 30 10 0 
eld 46 60 42 65 43 / 30 50 40 10 0 
tyr 50 60 45 69 49 / 60 50 20 10 0 
ggg 50 60 43 69 47 / 60 50 20 10 0 
lfk 52 61 41 70 48 / 70 60 20 10 0 


&& 


Shv watches/warnings/advisories... 
Arkansas...none. 
La...none. 
OK...none. 
Texas...none. 
&& 


$$ 


12/03