579 
fxus64 kmeg 202130 
afdmeg 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee 
330 PM CST Friday Nov 20 2009 


Discussion...19z surface analysis places a 1021 mb ridge of high 
pressure across the southeast untied states...extending west into 
the middle south. Meanwhile...a developing upper level low and 
associated surface low is located across East Texas. Sunny skies 
earlier today have allowed temperatures to rise into the lower to 
middle 60s across the forecast area this afternoon. Rain chances 
in the short term is the primary forecast challenge for this 
afternoon/S forecast package. 


Short term...(tonight through monday)...clouds will continue to 
increase across the middle south tonight as a developing upper level 
low and associated surface low move across the lower Mississippi 
Valley along the Gulf Coast Saturday and departing the region on 
Sunday. 18z WRF/12z GFS in better agreement than previous runs 
with the track of this system. Analysis of model soundings/and 
isentropic surfaces indicate the best lift will remain across 
north Mississippi through the period with any rainfall amounts 
expected to be light at best. Also...model soundings indicate 
moisture will be somewhat limited with this system and kept chance 
probability of precipitation and higher confined to points mainly across north 
Mississippi. High pressure will gradually build back into the 
forecast area for Sunday into Monday. 




Long term...(monday night through friday)...latest 12z European model (ecmwf)/GFS 
long range model run in better than the past couple of runs. 
However...some timing issues continue to pose a challenge to 
timing of another cold front moving through the region Monday 
night into Tuesday. As a result...kept slight chance probability of precipitation going in 
long range forecast. Also raised temperatures up towards the end 
of the period as 850 mb temperatures are expected to be somewhat 
warmer than last night/S 00z model run. 


Cjc 
&& 


Aviation... 
18z tafs 


VFR conditions and light winds expected at all taf sites through 
18z Saturday. 


Ceilings will slowly lower to 7000-17000 feet above ground level by 18z Saturday. 


-Ra and MVFR conditions may be near ktup after 12z...but decided 
to keep out of taf for now thinking -ra and MVFR conditions will 
move in mainly after 18z. 


Mbs 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
mem 48 61 47 59 / 10 20 60 30 
mkl 42 61 45 57 / 10 10 60 40 
jbr 44 61 44 60 / 10 10 30 20 
tup 45 58 49 59 / 10 50 80 40 


&& 


Meg watches/warnings/advisories... 
Arkansas...none. 
MO...none. 
MS...none. 
Tennessee...none. 
&& 


$$