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afdbmx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama 
636 PM CDT Wednesday Jul 23 2008 


Short term...tonight and tomorrow. 


Convection much less than yesterday across the area. We are watching 
the line of thunderstorms in the Tennessee Valley that will continue 
to push into the area over the next few hours. With loss of daytime 
heating these should weaken and diminish by 8 or 9 PM. With the 
thunderstorms in the southern counties pushing out of the area this 
afternoon...will go with a general scattered thunderstorm forecast 
for the first half of the evening. Lows near 70. 


Drier air will push into the area late tonight and tomorrow 
morning...limiting thunderstorm chances to the far southern 
counties. Highs in the lower 90s. 


Long term...Friday through Wednesday. 


Northwesterly flow aloft to rule through the weekend. Looks like 
we will be on the eastern periphery of the ring of fire. Not 
confident enough to go more than 30 probability of precipitation at any location at this 
time...but showers and storms will be around. As the ridge flexes 
and wobbles over the weekend...1000 to 850 thicknesses are 
indicating temperatures near the century mark. Saturday looks to be the 
warmest at this time. 


&& 


Aviation...00z taf discussion. 


Expected ongoing convection to diminish between 00z and 02z...with 
most of the lingering action down around mgm and toi. Once the 
showers and storms die off...remainder of the night should feature 
middle-level convective debris type cloudiness (alto-cu) at most. I 
backed off of the fog/haze forecast late tonight in the locations 
that did not receive rain today (namely...all but mgm and toi)...and 
kept it at those that did (namely....mgm and toi). 


Model forecasts indicate northwest winds will bring in a slightly 
drier airmass tomorrow...which should mean fewer showers and storms. 


/61/ 


&& 


Bmx watches/warnings/advisories...none. 
&& 


$$