731 
fxus62 ktae 210046 
afdtae 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida 
750 PM EST Friday Nov 20 2009 


Discussion...the surface low that will impact our County Warning Area over the 
next 24 to 36 hours was over the western Gulf south of Corpus 
Christi this evening. The low is forecast to deepen while it lifts 
to the east northeast to a position about 150 miles south of Morgan 
City la at 12z Sat with the warm front stretched eastward over or 
just south of our coastal waters. We are still uncertain about the 
severe weather potential associated with this system. However...if 
it occurs...it will be during the Saturday afternoon/evening time 
frame. Until then...clouds will continue to increase across the 
region with only a slight chance of rain reaching our westernmost 
zones before daybreak. No update to grids or zones anticipated. 


&& 


Marine...winds and seas will increase overnight as the low 
pressure system approaches the central Gulf Coast from the 
southwest. 


&& 


Aviation...dry conditions remain in place across the area with just 
some high cirrus streaming across the region. Not expecting much in 
the way of fog overnight with winds expected to remain non zero. 
Could still see some low clouds overnight...especially at ktlh and 
kvld...with IFR conditions possible by morning. After clouds lift in 
the morning on Saturday...onset of low clouds and rain in the 
afternoon is the problem of the forecast. Models very different in 
handling approaching low. Have gone with hedge forecast for 
afternoon...with prob30 for MVFR conditions and rain in the 
afternoon. 


&& 


Tae watches/warnings/advisories... 
Alabama...none. 
Georgia...none. 
Florida...none. 
GM...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Barry/Camp