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fxus64 khun 210817 
afdhun 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Huntsville Alabama 
215 am CST Sat Nov 21 2009 


Discussion... 
short term (today through monday)... 
as expected...high clouds have spread across the area...and this 
sets the stage for not the nicest of weekends. However...it looks 
increasingly likely that today will not be bad...just with not a lot 
of sunshine. Temperatures today will in fact be rather mild...reaching the 
lower and perhaps middle 60s. Rain is looking less and less likely 
today with soundings showing almost all the moisture above 10 kft... 
except south and west late this afternoon. Will remove the slight 
chance of showers. However...some precipitation off to the west in Arkansas 
is reaching the ground in trace amounts...even out of the 10 kft 
ceilings. So will carry a slight chance of a sprinkle this afternoon. 


Models have lost their way regarding the approaching Gulf coastal 
system...with plenty of model disagreement. The GFS and its 
ensembles are favoring an even more southerly/easterly movement than 
before...leaving parts of the area almost completely dry. This is a 
total flip from prior runs. The NAM is more consistent but also much 
slower to bring in precipitation...not until late tonight or even Sunday. 
Will be cutting back probability of precipitation except in the southern counties...and 
focusing on the after midnight period. Despite cutting probability of precipitation...I 
remain Above All the model guidance probability of precipitation. With clouds and moisture 
in place...lows should remain around 50. 


Upper low comes across...in some form...on Sunday. GFS is too fast 
with that movement and will not be followed. In general...Sunday 
looks cloudy...raw...breezy...and with a good chance of rain. Given 
that the system will be weakening...uncertainty abounds. Will again 
hold probability of precipitation steady in the east and taper them lower to the northwest. 
Temperatures will hardly move...staying at best in the middle 50s. Although 
the system dissipates Sunday night...there is no frontal passage...and thus no 
airmass change. Meanwhile...models show a northern stream upper wave 
coming across. Soundings look quite favorable for low clouds and 
drizzle...perhaps even a light shower. Will keep the mention of 
slight chance rain or drizzle Sunday night...and expand it through 
Monday morning in the eastern counties. Some breaks in the clouds 
are possible Monday afternoon...so highs may approach 60. 


Extended (monday night through next saturday)... 
the rest of the forecast is quiet...despite the pattern being 
active. An approaching northern stream cold front is forecast to move 
through sometime Tuesday /or maybe Tuesday night/. Not a lot of 
forcing...but frontal forcing may spark a shower or two in the 
vicinity of the front. Will keep a slight chance mention on Tuesday 
afternoon everywhere...and in the east only Tuesday evening. 


This Ushers in cooler temperatures for Wednesday...which are 
reinforced by a stronger dry cold front Wednesday night. By the 
way...the European model (ecmwf) remains about a day slower with both of these fronts 
and for now...it is not being followed. Thanksgiving and the day 
after look dry but rather chilly...with highs 50 to 55 and lows 30 
to 35. A bit of a warmup looks possible to start next weekend...but 
it may not last long with another front currently shown late next 
weekend. 
&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Huntsville 64 50 55 48 59 / 5 70 50 20 10 
Shoals 64 50 56 48 62 / 5 60 40 20 10 
Vinemont 62 49 54 47 58 / 10 70 60 20 10 
Fayetteville 62 48 54 48 58 / 0 50 40 20 10 
Albertville 62 50 54 49 59 / 10 80 60 20 20 
Fort Payne 63 49 54 47 56 / 10 80 60 20 20 
&& 


Hun watches/warnings/advisories... 
Alabama...none. 
Tennessee...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Je/23