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afdbmx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama 
235 am CST Wednesday Dec 3 2008 


Short term...today through Thursday night. 


Nice day on tap as we should see a good deal of sunshine and a 
nice warm-up as the southerly flow increases. High temperatures 
today will be a good 10 degrees warmer than on Tuesday at most 
locations with readings in the 60s. Cold front will move into the 
extreme northwest sections late tonight and then across the area on 
Thursday...exiting the southeast sections Thursday evening. This 
run of the models is 3 to 6 hours slower than previous runs. 
Will forecast categorical probability of precipitation across the northwest...then taper 
probability of precipitation lower towards the southeast with scattered shower wording 
central sections and slight chance probability of precipitation southeast. Best rain chances 
area-wide will come on Thursday as front moves through. Will 
forecast categorical probability of precipitation all sections except likely northwest. 
Still some lingering showers across the east Thursday evening... 
then drier air moves in later at night. Overall rainfall from this 
system will be one quarter to one half inch. Opted to remove 
thunderstorm wording as very little instability indicated. Highs 
Thursday upper 40s northwest to lower 60s southeast. Lows Thursday 
night upper 20s northwest to upper 30s southeast. 


Long term...Friday through Tuesday. 


For Friday through Sunday...northwest flow aloft will allow several 
weak impulses to pass just north of the area. Will see some 
passing middle level clouds from time to time...but lack of moisture 
and high pressure at the surface will mean dry conditions. Highs 
mainly in the 50s. Overnight lows upper 20s to upper 30s. 


Monday and Tuesday...next storm system will approach from the 
west on Monday...then moves into and across the area on Tuesday. 
Will keep conditions dry on Monday...then slight chance probability of precipitation across 
the west Monday night...with a chance of showers area-wide on 
Tuesday. Highs mainly in the 50s. Lows 35 to 45. 


&& 


Aviation...06z taf discussion. 


VFR conds through the period except for patchy ground fog at tcl after 
09z. Light southeast winds through 13z will become south-southeast 8-10 
knots after 15z. Thin cirrus will pass overhead with scattered 
cumulus developing along the Gulf Coast by 20z and spreading 
northward across West Alabama after 23z. 


58/rose 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Gadsden 60 40 51 31 51 / 0 40 70 20 10 
Anniston 60 40 53 31 52 / 0 30 80 20 10 
Birmingham 61 47 52 30 51 / 0 50 80 20 10 
Tuscaloosa 64 46 55 31 53 / 0 50 70 10 10 
Calera 61 45 54 32 52 / 0 50 80 20 10 
Auburn 60 40 57 34 53 / 0 10 80 30 10 
Montgomery 64 44 60 37 56 / 0 20 80 30 10 
Troy 63 42 61 38 56 / 0 10 80 30 10 


&& 


Bmx watches/warnings/advisories...none. 


&& 


$$ 


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