973 
fxak67 pajk 112326 
afdajk 


Southeast Alaska forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Juneau Alaska 
226 PM akst Thursday Mar 11 2010 


Short term...the latest satellite loop shows a strong low just 
west of Sitka...slowly moving northward. A weakening front wraps 
around the low and across the Panhandle with strong winds over 
the southern areas and rain. Rain mixing with snow continues 
across the central Panhandle with moderate snowfall on or around 
Elfin Cove and Pelican areas. The trailing edge of the front 
passing over the southern areas decreases gusty winds and allows 
the Wind Advisory expired. A trough forming just behind the 
frontal boundary will maintain near advisory level gusts 
momentarily but the observations across the Dixon Entrance and 
charlottes indicate a quick drop of wind speed. As the front 
continues drifts northward...the advisory level wind gusts will 
continue across the south central Panhandle through early this 
evening. 


Models are in fair agreement with the low west of Sitka slowly 
weakening as it moves over Glacier Bay this evening. The low will 
continue to weaken over the southwestern Yukon through late 
tonight. The associated front will continue to drift 
northeastward across Southeast Alaska through late tonight. A 
weakening second wrap behind the trailing edge of the front will 
maintain breezy condition across the forecast domain through 
early tonight. Moderate snow in Elfin Cove has changed to mixing 
with rain at this time...but will keep the Winter Weather 
Advisory through tonight as colder air moving into the area 
behind the low. As the low moves over Glacier Bay...winds will 
pick up to advisory level gusts across the northern Lynn Canal. 
Will keep the Wind Advisory for Skagway as previously issued for 
tonight. 


Long term...the long term models continue to be in good agreement 
along with run to run consistency through the weekend but then 
they differ through next week with below average forecast 
confidence. There was many changes done from the previous forecast 
and continue to use the ec through the Middle Range then used HPC 
guidance from Monday through next Thursday. 


At the start of the long term a upper shortwave trough will be 
lifting over the Panhandle. Associated with the trough is some 
colder air so the showers will be in the frozen form with 
accumulations of 1 to 3 inches. The showers will diminish through 
early Sat morning as another strong front will move into the Gulf 
by Sat morning. The front will move slow over the Panhandle and 
not be east of the area until Sun night. This front will spread 
maximum gales across the eastern Gulf along with Wind Advisory gusts over 
the coastal areas of the Panhandle. The p type with the front will 
be tricky over the central Inner Channels. Mixed precipitation will move 
over the coastal areas and southern areas through Sat and spread 
inland in the late afternoon/early evening. There is a chance of 
significant winter weather for the far northern Inner Channels with a 
mix of rain and snow over the north central areas. Amounts over 
the north central will be hard to Pin Point as it will depend on 
the time it changes to all rain with warm air advection. The front will increase the 
winds over the Inner Channels to be windy with gales over east/west 
channels and small craft over north/S channels. The precipitation will be 
heavy at times on sun as there will strong upper level dynamics 
along with orographic lifting. 


Into next week...the main upper level low associated with the 
front over the weekend will remain over the central Gulf and swing 
energy over the Panhandle. The showers associated with the energy 
will be a mix of rain and snow but at this time think it may be more rain 
than snow. 


Ajk watches/warnings/advisories... 
public...Wind Advisory until 6 PM akst this evening for akz023-026. 
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 am akst Friday for akz022. 
Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 5 am akst Friday for 
akz018. 
Marine...Storm Warning for pkz036. 
Gale Warning for pkz013-022-031-033>035-041>043-051. 
Small Craft Advisory for pkz011-012-021-032-052. 


&& 


$$ 


Ahn/abj 

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