909 
fxak69 pafg 202327 
afdafg 


Northern Alaska forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska 
227 PM akst Friday Nov 20 2009 


Discussion... 


Upper air: models are in good agreement through 60 hours. By 
sun...long wave trough will be squeezed between building 
ridges...one north of Siberia with ridge axis extending southeast 
and the other with axis extending from the eastern Pacific north 
over Southeast Alaska to the southeast interior. Deep closed low 
currently over the western Bering Sea will move east to Bristol 
Bay on sun. 


Surface: a 965 mb low 500 nm northwest of Adak will move 
southeast. On Sat...at 3 PM akst the low will be 969 mb 300 nm 
northeast of Adak. On sun...at 3 PM akst the low will be 970 mb 
600 nm northeast of Adak. A 1000 mb low just west of Point Hope 
Friday afternoon will intensify to 998 mb over the Chukchi Sea late 
Friday night. The low will dissipate Sat...but a trough will persist 
over the Chukchi Sea through sun. 


North slope: for the weekend...light winds with flurries and 
patchy fog will continue east of Barrow. To the west of 
Barrow...low pressure forming over the Chukchi Sea will bring an 
increase of winds but below advisory levels. Most of the snow 
associated with the low will be offshore. An increase of east 
winds...may happen by midweek...but models have poor run to run 
consistency with details beyond early in the week. The strengths 
and positions of low pressures developing over the high Arctic and 
over the Gulf of Alaska early in the week remain a challenge to 
the models. No advisories are anticipated into middle week at this 
time. 


West coast: strong low pressure moving southeast to Bristol Bay by 
sun will produce an increase of synoptic scale east winds for the 
West Coast. Advisory winds for the marine areas may occur...but not 
much more weather than that is expected. 


Interior: models show increasing 850 mb temperatures during the 
weekend. By sun...the current early season cold snap should be 
done. South winds through Alaska Range passes will increase Sat 
night and sun...though as winds increase temperatures will also 
rise...so wind chill advisories are not expected. 


Hydrology: no new information has been received for piledriver 
Slough water. An update is expected later in the afternoon. 


Coastal hazard potential days 3 and 4...none 


&& 


Afg watches/warnings/advisories... 
heavy freezing spray warning for pkz210-pkz220-pkz225. 


Small Craft Advisory for pkz210-pkz225. 
&& 


$$ 


Da Nov 09 

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations

Non-Expanded Version (with abbreviations)