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Area forecast discussion 
southcentral and southwest Alaska 
1252 PM akst Thursday Mar 11 2010 


Model discussion...GFS NAM and European model (ecmwf) in fairly good agreement on 
main synoptic features. Low near Panhandle this afternoon moves 
onshore this evening with residual low over Prince William Sound. Big 
storm in the Aleutians is proged 5 to 8 mb deeper by GFS over NAM 
with old European model (ecmwf) close to GFS. 




Analysis and upper levels...continued instability over southcentral 
through Friday morning associated with upper tropopause trough. Main energy in 
jet south of Aleutians with developing storm. 




Short term forecast... 
Aleutians...storm appears to be on target with previous model runs. 
Surface low to reach about 100 nm south of Atka tonight. Expect storm 
force winds in marine zones and 40 to 50 miles per hour over land with gusts in 
the 70 to 80 miles per hour range. Going with blizzards across region as initial 
blast should be in the form of snow followed by a warming and wet 
snow or rain followed on the backside with more snow as temperatures 
decrease. Will issue blizzards for long periods instead of attempting 
to Pin Point exact periods. 


Southwest...variable clouds remaining cold with Bristol Bay warming 
Sat afternoon and kusko basin on sun. 


Southcentral...cloudy with periods of light snow through Friday morning. 
Partly cloudy Friday PM and Sat am with front moving on shore Sat 
afternoon. Kodiak can expect strong winds and possible blizzard Sat 
morning through afternoon. 


Long term forecast...by sun residual low spins in southern Gulf 
which will impact coastal areas with clouds and light precipitation but 
otherwise benign over southwest and southcentral. Temperatures over 
Mainland seasonable. A weather front moves through the western 
Bering on sun PM with a high amplitude ridge over the eastern Bering. 






Aer/alu...watch/warning summary 
public...blizzard warnings: 191 187 
marine...gales: 150 155 165 170 172 175 176 130 132 140 
fire weather...none 


Jmp Mar 10 

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